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It is a game we are happy to play. Can we predict what 2025 will bring to the fight against global warming? The task is daunting, as the world seems plunged into an era of instability where certainties and commitments are wavering. As recent events show, France is no exception. Unfortunately, the warning signs offer little reason for optimism. Let’s explore the upcoming trends and their implications.
The United States will (again) leave the Paris Agreement
Donald Trump’s return to power holds few surprises regarding the commitment of the world’s largest historical polluter to the fight against global warming. The prospect of a U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2025 is therefore very likely to become a reality. Donald Trump repeatedly stated throughout his presidential campaign that he would withdraw from these agreements. Paradoxically, oil giants, which are increasingly investing in renewable energy, are advocating for maintaining these commitments. However, the former president’s inflexibility on this point significantly reduces any hope of a change in direction.
But what impact will this have on the world? Probably very little. Whether under Democrats or Republicans, the United States has never been a leader in ambitious climate policy. The rest of the world, well aware of the limits of their commitment, is continuing its ecological transition by relying on other drivers of innovation and governance. Thus, American inertia, while regrettable, is not enough to completely halt international momentum.
European Green Deal: full reverse
Without abandoning all the measures adopted under the Green Deal, the new composition of the European Parliament seems to be steering the EU toward a new low-cost Green Deal. The deforestation regulation was the first to pay the price, being significantly watered down and seeing its implementation delayed. The CSRD directive is now in the crosshairs. Following an initial warning shot fired by the Draghi report, European leaders and then members of parliament have rushed into the breach. The parliamentarians' goal? To create new application thresholds that would allow thousands of companies to escape the strictest requirements of this non-financial reporting standard. Sensing the tide turning, a majority of EU countries have still not transposed this regulation into their national law, including Germany, despite being led by a coalition that includes the Greens and the Social Democrats.
Even the CS3D regulation on corporate due diligence is on the chopping block, with some politicians calling for the gutting of a directive that was already adopted as a bare minimum. The European Parliament is therefore preparing to unravel the main pillars of theEuropean Green Deal at the risk of significantly weakening it and compromising Europe's ambition to become a global leader in the green industry.
GreenTech focus
The GreenTech sector, which has seen a real explosion in recent years, is expected to enter a consolidation phase in 2025. While traditional tech start-ups have struggled in recent years to attract investment in an uncertain economic climate, GreenTech companies have continued to benefit from investor attention. This success is based on a key factor: their ability to meet increasingly stringent environmental regulations while aligning with the expectations of consumers and businesses seeking sustainable solutions.
However, a new phase seems to be emerging. The trend toward mergers and acquisitions that began in 2024 is expected to intensify in 2025. This concentration could help consolidate the sector's strengths by weeding out weaker players and bolstering the innovation capabilities of the surviving companies. Many young companies, often focused on a short-term vision, risk falling victim to this consolidation phase as they struggle to compete with players that have decades of expertise and proven know-how. Ultimately, leading companies with increased resources and a clear strategic positioning will be able to drive a larger-scale ecological transition. This maturity phase is conducive to the emergence of new markets linked to breakthrough technologies. These developments will place GreenTech at the heart of economic and climate strategies.
The growing influence of Chinese environmental policy
China, the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, could paradoxically play a positive role in Europe. The massive influx of low-cost Chinese electric vehicles is already disrupting the European market, opening it up to households that previously could not afford them. Although this competition raises economic concerns, it could therefore democratize access to electric mobility, thereby accelerating the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in Europe and having a significant impact on its energy mix.
However, this dynamic is not without its ambiguities. Chinese production, still heavily reliant on energy from coal-fired power plants, remains highly carbon-intensive, which risks shifting emissions rather than reducing them. Europe’s growing dependence on China in this sector also raises strategic questions. A more proactive and accessible European automotive industry would likely have enabled a more balanced and sustainable transition. What already happened with the solar panel industry therefore seems to be repeating itself inexorably.
Carbon credits are making a comeback
After a series of crises and scandals, carbon credits have long suffered from bad press. In 2023, the market collapsed by 61%. Far from abandoning these types of projects, countries participating in the latest COP29 have taken the gamble of relaunching this mechanism, but by providing a much stricter framework, under the aegis of the UN, to regulate the issuance and international trading of carbon credits. This overhaul, aimed at restoring the credibility of the mechanism, could revitalize the market once again.
In parallel, a new concept is emerging: biodiversity credits. In the wake of the vote on the European Nature Restoration Law, several EU countries are beginning to develop projects for issuing biodiversity credits aimed at encouraging companies to fund ecosystem preservation and restoration projects. This development could not only strengthen environmental efforts but also diversify the tools available to address the climate emergency. It remains to be hoped that these mechanisms will learn from past pitfalls.
The year 2025 looks set to be a period of contrasts, where setbacks and progress will intertwine. Between political disengagement, industrial transformations, and regulatory innovations, climate action remains at a crossroads. The choices made today will determine whether humanity can truly reverse the warming trend or if it will continue to navigate blindly in the face of the emergency.